Barbie vs. Oppenheimer: What Will Opening Weekend Say About the Film Industry?

One Moore Hollywood Podcast is back and ready to tackle the question on every movie fan’s mind this weekend: Barbie or Oppenheimer?

As theaters recover from the massive shift in how people sought entertainment throughout the pandemic, opening weekends are a way to test the waters–to see how audiences want to experience movies now, and if that still includes watching them in theaters.

Our hosts, Chris Moore, Katie Marpe, and Dennis De Nobile, have a range of opinions on this topical question.

Let’s get into them.

The Power of Counterprogramming

Counterprogramming, or programming two very different films to premiere on the same day, is not new. Studios often use counterprogramming to optimize how much money two films with different target demographics can make on the same weekend. Moore also describes it as a way to up the ante, get people excited, and have playful fun with highly anticipated movie releases. Fifteen years ago, Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight premiered on July 18, 2008, the same day as Phyllida Lloyd’s Mamma Mia.

Now Oppenheimer, another film by Nolan, is sharing a release date with Greta Gerwig’s Barbie.

As Moore points out, much of the marketing surrounding these two films is geared toward which movie you will choose, the underlying assumption being that you will see at least one of them.

“Arguably, the biggest showdown of the summer is Barbie versus Oppenheimer.”

–Dennis De Nobile

While Moore doubts how much crossover there will be between the demographics interested in Barbie and those interested in Oppenheimer, De Nobile and Marpe feel differently, De Nobile noting AMC’s announcement that twenty thousand people have already bought tickets for both movies on the same day. Of course, those numbers aren’t nearly enough to move the needle, but it makes you wonder if a trend is emerging this weekend.

Are Movies Still Events?

Despite all the hype surrounding these two films, are theater premieres still enough of an event to attract a significant audience, or will most people wait to watch them once they’re available to stream?

“Are enough people excited to go to theaters to have two big opening movies the same weekend and have them both do substantial numbers?”

–Dennis De Nobile

In the aftermath of COVID-19 and the massive popularity of subscription-based streaming platforms, Moore isn’t so sure movie releases can still be considered events. Back in the day, he’d buy his movie ticket eight weeks in advance to make sure he could see it on premiere day. When Harry Potter movies came out, kids would show up to see them in theaters decked out with wands and capes. It was an event. These days, Moore questions whether people will still get excited at that same level.

“Barbie will win across the board. However, I think it’s clear I’m team theaters, so if I’m answering for myself, I will see both films in theaters.”

–Katie Marpe

Marpe, acknowledging her bias towards movies in general (being a doctor of them), disagrees, firmly believing there is still life in theaters. Beyond Marpe’s lifelong love of going to the movies, she’s clocked a general atmosphere of excitement and anticipation among her friends for the Barbie release in particular.

What Will Your Choice Tell the Industry?

What you do this weekend, whether attending back-to-back screenings of Barbie and Oppenheimer, choosing one over the other, or not seeing either, will say something to the film industry.

“Your choice this weekend is going to tell the industry if we’re at a level where we should build economics and expectations around new numbers.”

–Chris Moore

When it comes to what kinds of films people are willing to take a bet on, Moore thinks what happens this weekend will provide a significant clue. Original stories are what he’s most interested in keeping alive, having been the creative producer of films like Good Will Hunting and Manchester by the Sea. He sees Oppenheimer as the parallel to those, a story no one has told before, and he wants people to be willing to invest in those kinds of scripts in the future.

“Weekends like this one are for the storytelling world…they will have a lot to do with the decisions that get made over the next twelve to fifteen months…a lot of what we’re trying to do is chase what you’ll spend your money on, and if I’m wrong and people spend money on this shit, that’s awesome.”

–Chris Moore

On first impression, Moore's take is that Barbie, being an effort from Mattel, feels less like the original stories he's hoping to see more of in the future.

Already having bought tickets to see Barbie on its release day, Marpe begs to differ. In her view, Barbie, with a broader audience and more overall hype, will win this weekend’s popularity contest.

“If you’re touching on something they’re comfortable with, people are more likely to go, and I think that’s true of Barbie. Oppenheimer is going right at things we’re uncomfortable with.”

–Dennis De Nobile

Even though De Nobile doesn’t anticipate Oppenheimer making as much money as Barbie due to Barbie’s nostalgic associations, he’s still most excited to see Oppenheimer. Not only will he be seeing it in theaters, but he’ll be watching it on the biggest screen he can via IMAX.

When it comes down to it, despite having differing perspectives on the future of cinema, all three hosts desperately want to see theaters survive, and they hope this weekend will be a turning point in that direction.

Listen to the entire episode here: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, or iHeartRadio.